Matchup: Cavaliers vs Heat
Date & Time: Wednesday, April 23, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
Betting Line: Cavaliers -3.5 | Over/Under: 216.5

Key Storylines

Playoff Implications Loom Large

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, every game matters. Both the Cavaliers and the Heat are fighting for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland holds a slight edge in the standings, and a win tonight could extend their cushion while tightening their grip on home-court advantage for the first round.

Heat Heating Up at the Right Time

Miami has won five of its last seven games, thanks in large part to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo’s high-level play. Butler is averaging 23.6 points over the last five games, while Adebayo continues his dominance on defense and on the glass. With Tyler Herro back from injury and contributing off the bench, Miami is regaining its playoff-caliber form.

Cavs Leaning on Defense

Cleveland comes into this matchup boasting the third-best defensive rating in the league. Led by All-Star Donovan Mitchell and big man Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers have been able to stifle opponents with their interior presence. Mitchell’s scoring punch (27.4 PPG) will be crucial tonight against one of the tougher defensive squads in the East in Miami.

Injury Report

Heat:
Out: Josh Richardson (shoulder), Duncan Robinson (back)
Questionable: Kevin Love (ankle)

Cavaliers:
Out: Caris LeVert (knee), Ricky Rubio (personal)
Questionable: Max Strus (hamstring), Dean Wade (ankle)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Heat: 34-38-1 ATS
Cavaliers: 37-34-2 ATS

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone under in 7 of Cleveland’s last 10 games
The total has gone over in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games

Home/Road Splits:
Heat are 16-21 on the road this season
Cavaliers are 24-13 at home

Player Prop to Watch

Jimmy Butler (Heat) – Points Total: 22.5
Butler has gone over this number in four of his last five games. With Cleveland focusing on Adebayo in the paint, Butler could carry the offensive load again.

Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) – Three-Pointers Made: 2.5
Mitchell loves the big stage, and against a Miami defense that allows frequent pull-up threes, he could easily eclipse this total at home.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Cavaliers -3.5 → Cleveland is tough at home and has the defensive versatility to counter Miami’s top weapons.

Total: Under 216.5 → Both teams prioritize defense, and with playoff intensity ramping up, possessions will come at a premium.

Player Prop: Jimmy Butler Over 22.5 points → Reliable score-first option in what could be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair.

This matchup has all the makings of a tight Eastern Conference showdown. Expect both teams to dig in defensively, with the Cavaliers pulling out a close win behind a big night from Mitchell and Mobley.

Final Score Prediction: Cavaliers 106, Heat 101