Game Details:

Matchup: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Date & Time: Friday, March 14, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Betting Line: Mavericks -3.5 | Over/Under: 228.5

Key Storylines

Western Conference Playoff Implications

As the regular season winds down, both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are fighting for playoff positioning. The Mavericks, led by Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, are aiming for home-court advantage in the Western Conference, while the Rockets are in a heated race for a play-in spot.

Season Series So Far

The Mavericks and Rockets have split their previous two meetings this season, making this third encounter a crucial tiebreaker. Dallas won the last meeting 114-106 behind a 40-point performance from Luka Dončić.

Houston’s Home-Court Edge

The Rockets have been strong at home this season, boasting a 22-10 record at the Toyota Center. They will look to capitalize on their home-court advantage and slow down a Mavericks offense that ranks in the top 10 in scoring.

Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks:
Out: Derrick Jones Jr. (ankle)
Questionable: Maxi Kleber (knee)

Houston Rockets:
Out: Jalen Green (hamstring), Tari Eason (leg)
Questionable: Fred VanVleet (hip)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS)

Mavericks: 34-28 ATS this season
Rockets: 30-31 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends

The total has gone over in 35 of Dallas’ 62 games this season.
The total has gone under in 34 of Houston’s 61 games this season.

Dallas Thrives on the Road

The Mavericks have a solid 18-12 record on the road this season and have covered the spread in five of their last seven away games.

Houston’s Home Defense

The Rockets allow just 109.4 points per game at home, one of the best marks in the league, which could make this a lower-scoring affair.

Player Prop to Watch

Luka Dončić (Mavericks) – Points Total: 30.5
Dončić has averaged 32.1 points in his last five games against Houston. With Jalen Green out, the Rockets may struggle to contain him defensively.

Alperen Şengün (Rockets) – Rebounds Total: 9.5
Şengün has been a dominant presence on the boards, especially with Eason sidelined.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Mavericks -3.5 → Dallas has been strong on the road and should cover.
Total: Under 228.5 → Houston’s disciplined defense could keep this a lower-scoring game.
Player Prop: Luka Dončić Over 30.5 points → He thrives against the Rockets.

While Houston will fight hard in front of their home crowd, Dallas’ star power should prove too much. Expect a competitive game with the Mavericks pulling away late.

Final Score Prediction: Mavericks 112, Rockets 106