Game Details:
Matchup: Bucks vs Heat
Date & Time: Saturday, April 5, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Betting Line: Bucks -3.5 | Over/Under: 222.5

Key Storylines

Playoff Positioning at Stake: With the regular season winding down, both teams are fighting for playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are currently jockeying for home-court advantage, while the Heat aim to avoid the Play-In Tournament.

Giannis Returns to the Lineup: After missing the previous game with a sore hamstring, Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return tonight. His presence dramatically shifts the Bucks’ offensive and defensive outlook.

Bam Adebayo’s Double-Double Form: Bam has recorded a double-double in 5 of his last 6 contests. His interior play will be crucial against the Bucks’ size and physicality down low.

Season Series

The Bucks lead the season series 2-1. In their last meeting, Milwaukee cruised to a 116-99 win behind a 35-point performance from Damian Lillard. The Heat will be looking to even the series on their home court.

Injury Report

Bucks:
Out: Khris Middleton (ankle)
Probable: Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring)

Heat:
Out: Tyler Herro (foot), Josh Richardson (shoulder)
Questionable: Duncan Robinson (back)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Bucks: 37-34 ATS this season
Heat: 31-39 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone under in 7 of Bucks’ last 10 road games
The total has gone under in 6 of Heat’s last 8 games overall

Player Prop to Watch

Damian Lillard – Points Total: 26.5
With Khris Middleton out, expect Lillard to shoulder more of the scoring load. He dropped 32 points in the last outing and should be aggressive once again with Miami’s backcourt depleted.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Bucks -3.5 → With Giannis back and Lillard’s recent form, Milwaukee has the edge against a short-handed Miami team.
Total: Under 222.5 → Both teams play a slower pace and key offensive pieces are either out or limited.
Player Prop: Damian Lillard Over 26.5 points → High usage night against a weakened Heat defense.

Expect a close first half, but Milwaukee’s depth and size could overwhelm Miami late. If Giannis looks healthy, the Bucks are likely to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Final Score Prediction: Bucks 112, Heat 104