Game Details:
Matchup: Hawks vs. Heat
Date & Time: Thursday, March 27, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Betting Line: Heat -4.5 | Over/Under: 225.5

Key Storylines

Playoff Implications Heating Up

As the regular season winds down, both teams find themselves jostling for postseason positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are clinging to sixth place, trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament, while the Hawks are fighting to stay inside the top 10. Wednesday’s matchup could go a long way in determining seeding and momentum.

Heat Defending Home Court

The Heat have been strong at home this season, posting a 22-13 record at Kaseya Center. Led by the proven core of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Miami is looking to rebound after a tough road loss to Boston earlier in the week. Their defense ranks top 5 in opponents’ points per game, making life tough for visiting offenses.

Hawks Looking for Road Success

The Hawks have struggled on the road this season with a 14-20 record. However, they’ve shown flashes of potential behind star point guard Trae Young and breakout wing Jalen Johnson. The team’s offensive firepower is elite, but their defense remains suspect, allowing over 117 points per game—a bottom-5 mark in the league.

Injury Report

Hawks:
Out: De’Andre Hunter (knee), Bruno Fernando (back)
Questionable: Saddiq Bey (ankle), Onyeka Okongwu (toe)

Heat:
Out: Tyler Herro (foot), Josh Richardson (shoulder)
Questionable: Duncan Robinson (wrist)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Hawks: 28-39 ATS this season
Heat: 33-34 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone over in 39 of Atlanta’s 67 games
The total has gone under in 36 of Miami’s 67 games

Series Note: The Heat have won 2 of the 3 matchups against the Hawks this season, including a 112-106 home win back in January.

Player Props to Watch

Trae Young (Hawks) – Points Total: 24.5
Miami’s defense could limit his efficiency, but his high usage makes the over an enticing play—especially with Hunter and potentially Bey sidelined.

Jimmy Butler (Heat) – Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA): 33.5
Butler thrives in clutch games with playoff energy; with Herro out, he’s asked to do more offensively and playmaking-wise.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Heat -4.5 → Miami’s home-court advantage and defensive edge give them the upper hand, especially if the Hawks are shorthanded again.

Total: Under 225.5 → Miami’s grind-it-out style and defensive identity typically slows pace and scoring.

Player Prop: Trae Young Over 24.5 points → He’s been heating up late in the season and will need to carry Atlanta’s scoring load.

Expect the Heat to come out with playoff-like intensity and take care of business at home. The Hawks may hang around early, but Miami’s discipline and clutch play will likely prove too much in the second half.

Final Score Prediction: Heat 111, Hawks 102