Game Details:
Matchup: Thunder vs Nuggets
Date & Time: Friday, May 9, 2025 | 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Betting Line: Nuggets -4.5 | Over/Under: 216.5

Key Storylines

Game 3 Showdown: The series shifts to Denver tied 1-1 after the Thunder bounced back with a 105-99 win in Game 2. Both teams have demonstrated their strengths, setting the stage for a pivotal Game 3 in a series that’s quickly become one of the most intense of the playoffs.

Jokic vs SGA: This series has become a battle of MVP-caliber stars. Nikola Jokic has been his usual dominant self, averaging 28.5 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists across the first two games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has answered with poise and creativity, posting 29.5 points per game while running the show for the Thunder.

Denver’s Home Dominance: The Nuggets are one of the toughest teams to beat at home and went 33-8 at Ball Arena during the regular season. They’ll look to defend their turf and take a 2-1 series lead.

Thunder’s Youthful Swagger: Oklahoma City continues to show that youth doesn’t mean inexperience. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have both risen to the occasion, providing critical scoring and defense to complement SGA’s leadership.

Injury Report

Thunder:
Questionable: Luguentz Dort (ankle, game-time decision)

Nuggets:
Probable: Jamal Murray (hamstring)

Betting Trends

• Against the Spread (ATS):
  Thunder: 46-36-1 ATS this season
  Nuggets: 39-42-2 ATS this season
• Over/Under Trends:
  The total has gone under in 4 of the Nuggets’ last 6 games
  The total has gone under in 5 of the Thunder’s last 7 games
• Home/Road Split:
  Nuggets are 33-8 at home
  Thunder are 21-20 on the road

Player Prop to Watch

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Assists Total: 8.5
Jokic is averaging 9 assists this series, and with Denver’s offense needing more rhythm, look for him to dictate tempo and find open shooters.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Points Total: 28.5
SGA has hit the over in both games this series. Expect another aggressive night as he looks to silence the Denver crowd.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Nuggets -4.5 → Denver’s home-court atmosphere should give them the edge, especially if Jamal Murray suits up.
Total: Under 216.5 → With both defenses clamping down, expect a more methodical, half-court style of play.
Player Prop: Jokic Over 8.5 assists → Denver’s ball movement should improve at home, giving Jokic chances to rack up dimes.

This series has all the makings of a seven-game classic. While the Thunder have the talent to steal another on the road, expect the defending champs to respond behind their passionate crowd and the brilliance of Nikola Jokic.

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 108, Thunder 101