Game Details:
Matchup: Thunder vs. Nuggets
Date & Time: Sunday, May 11, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Betting Line: Nuggets -4.5 | Over/Under: 215.5

Key Storylines

Western Conference Heavyweights Clash

It’s Game 4 of what has already become a tightly contested Western Conference semifinals series. The Nuggets currently lead 2-1 after stealing Game 3 in Oklahoma City. Tonight, they look to defend home court and take a commanding 3-1 lead. The Thunder, meanwhile, are hoping to bounce back and even the series before heading back home for Game 5.

Superstars Going Head to Head

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been spectacular so far, averaging 27.6 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.0 rebounds this postseason. On the other side, Nikola Jokic continues to dominate with near triple-double averages, including a monster 32-point, 14-rebound, 9-assist performance in Game 3. Expect both stars to play heavy minutes in what could be a pivotal swing game.

Defensive Adjustments & Bench Production

The Thunder struggled with Denver’s physical defense in Game 3, shooting just 42.1% from the field and 31.6% from three. Expect head coach Mark Daigneault to deploy more small-ball lineups to stretch the floor. Denver’s bench, led by Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson, outscored OKC’s second unit by 12 points last game—an advantage that could again tilt the scales tonight.

Injury Report

Thunder:
Questionable: Jalen Williams (ankle)
Out: Gordon Hayward (illness)

Nuggets:
Out: Vlatko Cancar (knee)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Thunder: 43-36-3 ATS this season
Nuggets: 37-44-1 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone under in 7 of the Thunder’s last 10 road games
The total has gone over in 6 of Denver’s last 9 home games

Player Props to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Points Total: 28.5
SGA has topped 30 points in 4 of his last 6 playoff games. With Jalen Williams potentially limited, his scoring load could increase. The over may be the play here.

Jamal Murray – Assists Total: 6.5
Murray’s playmaking has been up and down, but his assist numbers tend to climb when Jokic draws extra attention. Bank on the over if OKC sends double teams at Jokic consistently.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Nuggets -4.5 → Denver has won 21 of its last 25 home games and has the poise to close tight games late. With the altitude advantage and deeper playoff experience, they should cover.

Total: Under 215.5 → Given both teams’ top-10 defensive ratings and the high stakes, this feels like a grind-it-out, half-court battle.

Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points → With Oklahoma City potentially shorthanded and SGA in All-NBA form, he’s the safest bet to go big tonight.

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 108, Thunder 99