Game Details:
Matchup: Thunder vs Nuggets
Date & Time: Thursday, May 15, 2025 | 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Betting Line: Nuggets -4.5 | Over/Under: 219.5

Key Storylines

Win-or-Go-Home Stakes: It’s Game 6 in a tight Western Conference Semifinals series. Denver leads 3-2 after escaping Oklahoma City with a dramatic 103-101 victory. With their backs against the wall, the Thunder look to force a Game 7.

Home Court Magic: The Nuggets are 5-0 at home during the playoffs so far and boast one of the best home records in the NBA this season. Ball Arena remains a fortress, giving the defending champs a significant edge.

Jokic vs. Holmgren: Nikola Jokic continues to display MVP-caliber performances, averaging 29.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game in the series. Rookie big man Chet Holmgren has seen a heavier workload but is struggling to contain Jokic’s dominance in the post.

Injury Report

Oklahoma City Thunder:
Out: None
Questionable: Luguentz Dort (ankle)

Denver Nuggets:
Out: Zeke Nnaji (shoulder)
Questionable: Jamal Murray (hamstring)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Thunder: 42-38-2 ATS regular season, 6-5 ATS playoffs
Nuggets: 39-41-2 ATS regular season, 7-4 ATS playoffs

Over/Under Trends:
Total has gone under in 4 of the 5 games in this series
Thunder are 3-8 to the under in their last 11 games
Nuggets are 5-2 to the under in their last seven home games

Player Prop to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Points Total: 28.5
SGA is averaging 31.2 points in the postseason and has eclipsed 30 in three straight games. With elimination on the line, look for him to take over once again. The over is tempting here.

Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets) – Threes Made: 2.5
Porter is shooting 42% from deep this series and has hit 3+ threes in four of five games. With the Thunder defense sagging to cover Jokic, MPJ has plenty of open looks.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Nuggets -4.5 → Denver’s perfect home playoff record coupled with playoff experience gives them the edge to close out the series.

Total: Under 219.5 → With both teams tightening up defensively and most of the series going under, expect another slugfest.

Player Prop: SGA Over 28.5 Points → With the season on the line, expect a monster performance from OKC’s star guard.

Expect the Thunder to fight hard, but the Nuggets’ depth and home court advantage may be too much to overcome. Nikola Jokic and Co. likely punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals in a closely contested battle.

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 107, Thunder 102