Game Details:
Matchup: Bucks vs. Pacers
Date & Time: Friday, April 18, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Betting Line: Pacers -2.5 | Over/Under: 226.5

Key Storylines

Bucks Without Giannis?

The big question heading into tonight’s showdown is the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee’s superstar has missed the last two games due to a left calf strain and remains questionable. The Bucks’ offense has struggled in his absence, putting added pressure on Damian Lillard to carry the scoring load.

Pacers Peaking at the Right Time

Indiana has been one of the surprise teams post-All-Star break, boasting a 10-4 record in their last 14 games. Tyrese Haliburton is back to full strength, and rookie Jarace Walker continues to provide energy and consistency on both ends. The Pacers rank top five in offensive efficiency over the past month and are 9-1 against the spread over their last 10 home games.

Season Series So Far

This is the fourth and final regular-season matchup between these two teams. Indiana leads the season series 2-1, including a 122-115 win in Indianapolis back in February. The Pacers have shown they can score efficiently against the Bucks’ front line, even with Giannis on the floor.

Injury Report

Bucks:
Out: Khris Middleton (knee management)
Questionable: Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf)

Pacers:
Day-to-Day: Bennedict Mathurin (ankle)
Available: Tyrese Haliburton (rest)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Bucks: 28-36-1 ATS this season
Pacers: 41-24 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone over in 7 of the last 10 Bucks games
The total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 Pacers home games

Head-to-Head:
Pacers are 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the Bucks

Player Prop to Watch

Damian Lillard (Bucks) – Points Total: 26.5
Lillard has averaged 29.2 points over the last five games without Giannis and takes on a Pacers defense ranked 26th in opponent guard scoring.

Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) – Assists Total: 9.5
Haliburton has dished out double-digit assists in three straight games against Milwaukee.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Pacers -2.5 → With Giannis questionable and Indiana’s momentum at home, backing the Pacers to cover makes sense.
Total: Over 226.5 → Both teams are trending toward the over, especially with Indiana’s pace and Milwaukee relying more on outside shooting.
Player Prop: Damian Lillard Over 26.5 points → High-usage role with Giannis likely sidelined boosts his scoring outlook.

Indiana is playing with confidence and cohesion, while Milwaukee’s injury concerns could disrupt their rhythm again tonight. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair with the Pacers seizing the opportunity to close out the season series.

Final Score Prediction: Pacers 117, Bucks 111