Game Details:
Matchup: Thunder (49-33) vs. Pacers (47-35)
Date & Time: Monday, June 16, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Betting Line: Pacers -2.5 | Over/Under: 226.5
Key Storylines
Playoff Implications: Both Thunder and Pacers have fought their way to the Conference Finals, setting up what should be a high-intensity Game 5 with the series tied 2-2. The winner tonight takes a pivotal lead in the best-of-seven set.
Halliburton vs. SGA: The matchup between Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has lived up to billing. Both All-Stars have been electric through four games, each averaging over 26 points and 7 assists.
Pacers Home Dominance: Indiana has been almost unbeatable at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this postseason (6-1), relying on the energy of their home crowd and efficient team play. They’ll look to ride that edge tonight.
Thunder’s Youthful Surge: Oklahoma City continues to exceed expectations in the playoffs led by SGA, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. Their late-game composure has allowed them to steal road wins throughout the postseason.
Injury Report
Thunder:
Out: None
Questionable: Luguentz Dort (knee soreness)
Pacers:
Out: Bennedict Mathurin (shoulder – season-ending)
Questionable: Obi Toppin (ankle), Andrew Nembhard (illness)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
Thunder: 44-36-2 ATS this season
Pacers: 42-38-2 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 4-1 in Thunder’s last five playoff games
Over is 5-2 in Pacers’ last seven home games
Head-to-Head this Series:
Game 1: Pacers 114-107
Game 2: Thunder 121-115
Game 3: Thunder 108-101
Game 4: Pacers 117-103
Player Props to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Total: 28.5
SGA has topped 30+ points in six of his past seven playoff games. Indiana has struggled to guard him in isolation, and the over remains a strong consideration.
Tyrese Haliburton Assists Total: 9.5
Haliburton is the engine of the Pacers’ offense and has hit double-digit assists in three of the four games in this series. If Toppin and Turner are healthy, the over has strong value.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Pacers -2.5 → With the series returning to Indiana, the Pacers’ balanced scoring and home-court advantage give them a slim edge.
Total: Over 226.5 → Both teams have been running and scoring consistently. Expect another high-paced game with both squads pushing tempo.
Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points → The moment is never too big for SGA, and in Game 5, he’s likely to shoulder the scoring load once again.
Expect a close contest with back-and-forth runs, but Haliburton’s playmaking and Indiana’s depth should prove just enough to secure the win heading into Game 6.
Final Score Prediction: Pacers 119, Thunder 113