Game Details:
Matchup: Reds vs. Pirates
Date & Time: Thursday, August 7, 2025 | 7:10 PM ET
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Line: Pirates -1.5 | Over/Under: 8.5
Key Storylines
Playoff Push in the NL Central: Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are hovering around the .500 mark, staying within striking distance of the division-leading Cubs. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, every divisional matchup becomes critical, and Thursday night’s clash at PNC Park could carry postseason implications.
Pirates Rolling at Home: Pittsburgh holds a notable home-field advantage, with a 32-23 record at PNC Park this season. The pitching staff feeds off the spacious ballpark, and they’ll look to stifle a scrappy Reds lineup once again.
Reds Struggling on the Road: Cincinnati has hit a few bumps in the second half, posting just a 22-33 road record. Their offense has also been inconsistent, hitting .231 away from Great American Ball Park, one of the more hitter-friendly parks in MLB.
Probable Pitchers
Reds: Graham Ashcraft (6-9, 4.67 ERA)
Pirates: Mitch Keller (11-7, 3.84 ERA)
Keller has emerged as the Pirates’ ace, striking out 158 across 146 innings. He’s dominated Cincinnati in two outings this year (0.95 ERA), giving Pittsburgh a clear edge on the mound.
Injury Report
Reds:
Out: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (wrist), Nick Lodolo (shoulder), Tejay Antone (elbow)
Day-to-Day: Matt McLain (oblique)
Pirates:
Out: Oneil Cruz (ACL), Roansy Contreras (shoulder)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
Reds: 53-60 ATS this season
Pirates: 58-55 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone under in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 10 home games.
The total has gone over in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 road games.
Player Prop to Watch
Elly De La Cruz (Reds) – Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2.5
De La Cruz is the catalyst for the Reds’ offense. If he gets on base and disrupts the game with his speed, that’s how Cincinnati stays competitive. The over on this combo stat is worth a look at plus odds.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Pirates -1.5 → Pittsburgh has the pitching edge and is strong at home.
Total: Under 8.5 → Keller can contain Cincinnati’s bats, and Ashcraft is capable of limiting damage with his groundball-heavy style.
Player Prop: Elly De La Cruz Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs → High upside play for Cincinnati’s top threat.
Pittsburgh should control this one behind Keller’s consistency and a supportive home crowd. Cincinnati’s lack of road production might once again be their undoing.
Final Score Prediction: Pirates 5, Reds 2