Game Details:
Matchup: Patriots (6-8) vs. Ravens (11-3)
Date & Time: Sunday, December 21, 2025 | 8:20 PM ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Betting Line: Ravens -9.5 | Over/Under: 41.5
Key Storylines
Playoff Push for Ravens
The Ravens enter Week 16 with a strong 11-3 record and are in a fierce battle for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. A win at home tonight keeps them ahead of fellow contenders like the Chiefs and Dolphins. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to play at an MVP level, amassing over 3,200 passing yards and accounting for 32 total touchdowns this season.
Patriots Playing Spoiler
At 6-8, the Patriots are all but eliminated from playoff contention, but Bill Belichick’s squad would love nothing more than to throw off Baltimore’s postseason momentum. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes, including a 3-touchdown performance last week against Jacksonville. However, consistency has remained a major issue for New England.
Home Field Advantage
The Ravens are 6-1 at home this season and have won four straight at M&T Bank Stadium. In contrast, the Patriots have struggled on the road with a 2-5 record, and they’ve scored fewer than 17 points in five of those contests.
Injury Report
Ravens:
Out: CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), WR Rashod Bateman (hamstring)
Questionable: RB Gus Edwards (shoulder)
Patriots:
Out: DE Keion White (concussion), WR Tyquan Thornton (ankle)
Questionable: LT Trent Brown (knee), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (illness)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
- Patriots: 7-7 ATS this season
- Ravens: 9-5 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends:
- The total has gone under in 9 of Patriots’ 14 games this season
- The total has gone over in 8 of Ravens’ 14 games
Player Prop to Watch
Mark Andrews (Ravens) – Receptions Total: 5.5
With Bateman sidelined, Andrews becomes Jackson’s primary target. He’s cleared this number in 4 of his last 5 games.
Drake Maye (Patriots) – Passing Yards Total: 205.5
While mostly conservative, Maye may be forced to pass more tonight, especially if the Patriots fall behind early.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Ravens -9.5 → Baltimore’s defense coupled with Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability should overwhelm the Patriots, especially at home.
Total: Under 41.5 → New England’s offensive struggles and Baltimore’s stout defense point to a lower-scoring game.
Player Prop: Mark Andrews Over 5.5 Receptions → Expect Andrews to be a high-volume target in a game with key WR injuries.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 13