Game Details:
Matchup: Warriors (42-37) vs. Rockets (36-43)
Date & Time: Wednesday, April 23, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Betting Line: Warriors -2.5 | Over/Under: 226.0

Key Storylines

Play-In Implications

Both teams enter tonight’s Western Conference clash with postseason aspirations on the line. The Warriors are clinging to the 9th seed and aiming to solidify their Play-In Tournament position, while the Rockets remain on the fringe, needing a win to stay in contention.

Warriors Rolling Late

Golden State has surged recently behind improved play from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. The Warriors are 7-3 in their last 10 games and appear to be peaking at the right time. Their road record has improved as well, with back-to-back wins away from Chase Center.

Home Court Boost for Rockets

Despite fading from postseason talks in recent weeks, the Rockets own a solid home record (22-17) and have been competitive against top-tier offenses. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are capable of disrupting the Warriors’ defensive schemes if they get going early.

Injury Report

Warriors:
Out: Gary Payton II (hamstring), Dario Saric (back)
Questionable: Klay Thompson (knee)

Rockets:
Out: Tari Eason (leg), Cam Whitmore (ankle)
Questionable: Dillon Brooks (illness)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Warriors: 37-40-2 ATS this season
Rockets: 41-36-2 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:
Total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State’s last 7 games
Total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 home games

Home vs. Road:
Warriors: 18-21 on the road
Rockets: 22-17 at home

Player Prop to Watch

Stephen Curry (Warriors) – Points Total: 26.5
Look for Curry to exploit Houston’s perimeter defense. He’s averaging 28.4 PPG over his last five games and has shot over 42% from deep this month.

Alperen Sengun (Rockets) – Assists + Rebounds Total: 15.5
Sengun continues to do a little of everything. With Golden State lacking size inside, he could dominate the glass and facilitate from the high post.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Warriors -2.5 → Golden State’s experience and urgency give them the upper hand in a must-win game.
Total: Over 226.0 → Expect a faster pace and shootout potential, especially if the Rockets keep pace early.
Player Prop: Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points → He should shine on the big stage against a young Rockets defense.

This game has plenty riding on it, especially for the visiting Warriors. Expect a spirited battle, but Curry and Co. should pull away late with superior execution. Houston will keep it competitive, but the playoff-tested Warriors get the edge.

Final Score Prediction: Warriors 118, Rockets 112