Matchup: Warriors vs Rockets
Date & Time: Sunday, May 4, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Betting Line: Rockets -1.5 | Over/Under: 229.5

Key Storylines

Crucial Western Conference Showdown

With just a handful of games left in the regular season, tonight’s matchup between the Warriors and Rockets could have significant playoff implications. Both teams are jostling for position in the middle of the Western Conference standings, making every game down the stretch a must-win.

Warriors Heating Up at the Right Time

Golden State enters tonight’s game riding a five-game winning streak, fueled by strong performances from Stephen Curry and a resurgent Klay Thompson. The Warriors have also tightened up defensively, holding opponents under 110 points in four of their last five games.

Rockets’ Home-Court Resilience Tested

Houston has been solid at home this season with a 25-14 record at the Toyota Center. However, they’ve dropped three of their past four games overall, including a 121-113 loss to the Spurs. The Rockets will look to bounce back and slow down a red-hot Golden State team.

Injury Report

Warriors:
Out: Andrew Wiggins (elbow), Gary Payton II (ankle)
Questionable: Draymond Green (knee soreness)

Rockets:
Out: Tari Eason (shin), Jalen Green (hamstring)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Warriors: 36-32-2 ATS
Rockets: 38-31-1 ATS

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone over in 7 of the Warriors’ last 10 games
The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 Rockets home games

Player Prop to Watch

Stephen Curry (Warriors) – Points Total: 27.5
Curry has averaged 29.8 points over his last five games and is in terrific shooting rhythm. Houston struggles to contain dynamic perimeter scorers, making the over on his points prop a strong consideration.

Alperen Sengun (Rockets) – Rebounds Total: 10.5
Sengun remains Houston’s most consistent interior presence and will likely see increased rebounding opportunities with Wiggins and possibly Green out for Golden State.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Warriors +1.5 → Golden State’s current momentum and veteran leadership give them the edge, even on the road.

Total: Under 229.5 → While the Warriors are hot offensively, the Rockets tend to slow the pace at home. Expect a grind-it-out game.

Player Prop: Stephen Curry Over 27.5 points → Houston’s backcourt defense sets up Curry for another big night.

Expect a tight contest with playoff-like intensity. Golden State’s experience and recent form give them just enough firepower to edge the Rockets in crunch time.

Final Score Prediction: Warriors 115, Rockets 109