Game Details:
Matchup: Nuggets vs Thunder
Date & Time: Monday, May 5, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Betting Line: Thunder -2.5 | Over/Under: 223.5

Key Storylines

Battle of the West’s Best

This Western Conference showdown features two of the top contenders as the Nuggets head to Oklahoma City to face a surging Thunder squad. Both teams are jostling for playoff positioning, and every win counts down the stretch. The Thunder have held a slim advantage at home this season, while the defending champion Nuggets are trying to regain momentum after recent mixed performances.

SGA vs Jokic: MVP Clash

The duel between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic headlines the night. SGA has been electric all season, carving up defenses with his smooth scoring and playmaking. On the other side, Jokic continues to dominate with all-around brilliance, averaging nearly a triple-double and anchoring Denver’s efficient offense.

Series on the Line

This is the fourth and final regular-season matchup between these teams, with the Thunder currently holding a 2-1 series lead. In the last meeting, Oklahoma City stole a 113-110 win in Denver behind a clutch performance from Jalen Williams. Expect playoff intensity tonight in what could be a postseason preview.

Injury Report

Nuggets:
Out: Vlatko Cancar (knee)
Questionable: Jamal Murray (hamstring) – Game-time decision

Thunder:
Out: Gordon Hayward (back)
Questionable: Chet Holmgren (ankle)

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):

Nuggets: 35-30 ATS this season
Thunder: 39-27 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:

The total has gone under in 7 of the last 10 games for Denver
The total has gone over in 8 of the last 11 for Oklahoma City

Home/Road Splits

Thunder are 28-8 at home this season, while Nuggets are a respectable 20-15 on the road.

Player Prop to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Points Total: 27.5
Given Murray’s questionable status, SGA could dominate the backcourt matchup. He’s averaging 30+ points in the previous three meetings against Denver this season.

Nikola Jokic – Assists Total: 9.5
With the Thunder likely throwing double teams, Jokic’s playmaking will be key. He’s averaging 10.2 assists per game over his last five.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Thunder -2.5 → Oklahoma City is dominant at home and matches up well against Denver’s weaker wing defense.
Total: Over 223.5 → Both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency.
Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 points → Expect a statement game from SGA in primetime.

The Thunder’s balance and aggressive defense at home give them the edge, especially if Jamal Murray is limited or out. Jokic will keep it close, but Oklahoma City’s depth and closing ability should prevail in a raucous home atmosphere.

Final Score Prediction: Thunder 117, Nuggets 111