Game Details:
Matchup: Nuggets vs Thunder
Date & Time: Tuesday, May 13, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Betting Line: Thunder -2.5 | Over/Under: 219.5

Key Storylines

Series on the Line: The Thunder and Nuggets are knotted up at 2-2 in what has been a highly competitive Western Conference Semifinal. With Game 5 back in Oklahoma City, the Thunder look to leverage their home crowd and take control of the series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Nikola Jokic: The marquee matchup to watch is between MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. SGA has been electric all playoffs, while Jokic continues to carry Denver with his all-around brilliance, averaging 28.6 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 8.7 assists through the first four games.

Thunder’s Youthful Energy vs Nuggets’ Championship Poise: Youth versus experience is the narrative here. The Thunder have used their quickness and defensive pressure to disrupt Denver at times, but the Nuggets responded in Game 4 with a 110-102 win behind Jokic and Jamal Murray’s combined 58 points.

Injury Report

Nuggets:
Questionable: Michael Porter Jr. (back tightness)
Out: Vlatko Cancar (knee)

Thunder:
Probable: Jalen Williams (ankle)
No other significant injuries reported

Betting Trends

Against the Spread (ATS):
Nuggets: 41-39-2 ATS this season
Thunder: 48-34 ATS this season

Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone under in 6 of the Nuggets’ last 8 games
The total has gone over in 5 of the Thunder’s last 7 home games

Thunder at Home: Oklahoma City is 33-8 at home this season, one of the best home records in the NBA. The altitude and crowd noise make Paycom Center a tough place to play.

Player Prop to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Points Total: 29.5
SGA has scored 30+ in each home game this series and thrives in high-pressure moments. The over on his points prop continues to look appealing, especially with the series intensity ramping up.

Nikola Jokic – Assists Total: 8.5
If the Thunder look to trap or double-team Jokic early, expect him to easily eclipse this number with his elite passing from the post.

Prediction & Best Bets

Spread: Thunder -2.5 → The Thunder have shown incredible composure at home all year, and with the crowd behind them, they should take a critical 3-2 series lead.

Total: Under 219.5 → Despite both teams having offensive firepower, playoff pressure tends to slow games down. Take the under in what should be a grind-it-out affair.

Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points → SGA rises to the moment and should deliver another clutch performance in front of the home fans.

Final Score Prediction: Thunder 108, Nuggets 103