Game Details:
Matchup: Nuggets vs Thunder
Date & Time: Sunday, May 18, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Betting Line: Thunder -1.5 | Over/Under: 216.5
Key Storylines
High-Stakes Western Showdown: The Nuggets and Thunder meet in a pivotal postseason clash with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line. Oklahoma City holds home-court advantage, but Denver comes in as the defending champions with experience on their side.
Jokic vs Holmgren: This promising matchup sees MVP candidate Nikola Jokic battling rookie phenom Chet Holmgren. Jokic’s versatility and experience will test the young big man, who has impressed with shot-blocking and floor-spacing ability throughout the playoffs.
Thunder’s Youth Movement: Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Holmgren, the Thunder are looking to prove that their young core can rise to the challenge. Their quick pace and length on defense could pose problems for Denver’s halfcourt-heavy style.
Nuggets’ Road Woes: While Denver went 33-8 at home during the regular season, they were a modest 21-20 on the road. Playing in Oklahoma City’s raucous Paycom Center could be a genuine test for Denver’s role players, who have struggled away from Ball Arena.
Injury Report
Denver Nuggets:
Out: Reggie Jackson (hamstring)
Questionable: Aaron Gordon (ankle)
Oklahoma City Thunder:
Out: Kenrich Williams (back)
Probable: Luguentz Dort (knee)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
Nuggets: 39-41-2 ATS this season
Thunder: 48-34 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 Nuggets games.
The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Thunder playoff games.
Home-Court Advantage:
Thunder are 4-0 at home in this year’s playoffs, while Denver is just 1-2 on the road in the postseason.
Player Prop to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Points Total: 28.5
SGA is averaging 29.4 points per game this postseason. With Denver’s backcourt defense being exploitable, the over on his points prop is worth a look.
Nikola Jokic – Assists Total: 8.5
Jokic continues to orchestrate Denver’s offense flawlessly. In a slower-paced game, his playmaking will be crucial against OKC’s switch-heavy defense.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Thunder -1.5 → With home-court advantage, youthful energy, and defensive depth, Oklahoma City has a slight edge.
Total: Under 216.5 → Both teams play slower and impose solid half-court defenses. Expect a grind-it-out affair.
Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points → With the series on the line, look for SGA to take over offensively.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 107, Nuggets 102