Game Details:
Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Date & Time: Sunday, June 22, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Betting Line: Thunder -4.5 | Over/Under: 232.5
Key Storylines
Playoff Implications Looming
As the regular season winds down, both the Pacers and Thunder are jockeying for postseason positioning. The Thunder have surged into the top of the Western Conference behind MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Pacers cling to a mid-tier playoff spot in the East thanks to their elite pace and offensive output led by Tyrese Haliburton.
Thunder’s Home Dominance
Oklahoma City boasts one of the league’s best home records this season, going 28-9 at Paycom Center. With young, athletic wings like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren accompanying Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder thrive in transition, and they’ll look to run the Pacers out of the building tonight.
Pacers Look to Stop the Slide
Indiana enters this contest having lost 4 of their last 6 games. While Haliburton continues to provide elite playmaking, the defense has faltered, allowing over 120 points in three of those losses. A road matchup against one of the league’s most balanced offenses is a tough draw when trying to stay afloat in the East.
Injury Report
Indiana Pacers:
Questionable: Bennedict Mathurin (ankle), Obi Toppin (knee)
Out: Aaron Nesmith (shoulder)
Oklahoma City Thunder:
Doubtful: Isaiah Joe (wrist)
Out: Kenrich Williams (back)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
Pacers: 34-36 ATS
Thunder: 41-29 ATS
Over/Under Trends:
The total has gone over in 39 of Indiana’s 70 games
The total has gone over in 34 of Oklahoma City’s 70 games
Home/Road Splits:
Pacers are 15-21 on the road
Thunder are 28-9 at home
Player Prop to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Points Total: 27.5
SGA has scored 30+ in four of his last five home games. Against a Pacers team that struggles to contain dribble penetration, the over on his points prop is extremely enticing.
Tyrese Haliburton – Assists Total: 10.5
The lead guard is averaging 11.1 assists but could face trouble if the Thunder’s defense continues to pressure pick-and-roll ball handlers effectively. Consider the under if Thunder wings limit Indiana’s ability to space the floor.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Thunder -4.5 → Oklahoma City’s dominance at home, plus Indiana’s poor defensive form on the road, make laying the points a solid play.
Total: Over 232.5 → Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, and their recent trends point heavily toward another high-scoring shootout.
Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 points → He’s rolling offensively and should have a strong matchup advantage tonight.
Final Score Prediction:
Thunder 125, Pacers 117