Game Details:
Matchup: Timberwolves vs Thunder
Date & Time: Thursday, May 22, 2025 | 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Betting Line: Thunder -2.5 | Over/Under: 210.5
Key Storylines
Western Conference Finals Clash: The Thunder and Timberwolves meet tonight in what’s expected to be a pivotal Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. The series is currently tied 1-1, with both teams showing flashes of brilliance and defensive grit. After splitting games in Minnesota, the series now shifts to Oklahoma City, where home-court advantage could be the deciding factor.
Star Power Matchup: The Thunder are led by MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s been phenomenal this postseason, averaging 30.2 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.3 rebounds. On the other side, Anthony Edwards continues his breakout postseason campaign, pouring in 28.9 points per game, along with elite perimeter defense. This head-to-head matchup is must-watch basketball and will heavily influence the betting line.
Defensive Juggernauts: Both teams are among the NBA’s top-five in defensive rating. The Timberwolves, in particular, boast the league’s best defensive mark, thanks to Rudy Gobert’s rim protection and Jaden McDaniels’ versatility. Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out battle — just like the last two games which both went under the closing totals.
Injury Report
Timberwolves:
Out: None
Questionable: Kyle Anderson (shoulder)
Thunder:
Out: Gordon Hayward (ankle)
Questionable: None
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
Timberwolves: 46-36-2 ATS this season
Thunder: 48-33-3 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends:
Total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota’s last 9 playoff games
Total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 8 games
Home Court Advantage:
The Thunder are 32-9 at home this season (including playoffs), making them one of the toughest teams to beat at Paycom Center.
Player Props to Watch
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) – Points Total: 27.5
Edwards has scored 28+ points in four of his last five playoff games and will continue to see high usage. The OVER on his point total is worth a look.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Assists Total: 5.5
Shai has gone over this number in three of his last four games. Against a tough Minnesota defense, playmaking will be key for him to unlock the offense.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread Pick: Thunder -2.5
Oklahoma City’s electric home crowd and balanced scoring attack should give them the edge tonight. Expect Coach Daigneault to make key adjustments to contain Edwards in crunch time.
Total Pick: Under 210.5
Given both teams’ elite defensive ratings and the playoff intensity, the UNDER has been a profitable trend and should continue tonight.
Player Prop: Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points
He’s been the heart of Minnesota’s offense, and with the series tied, expect him to be aggressive from the opening tip.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 106, Timberwolves 101