Game Details:
Matchup: Thunder vs Timberwolves
Date & Time: Thursday, May 22, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Line: Timberwolves -3.5 | Over/Under: 218.5
Key Storylines
Playoff Implications Loom Large
With both teams continuing deep playoff runs, Game 3 in this Western Conference playoff series is a pivotal moment. The series is currently tied 1-1, with the Thunder stealing Game 2 on the road behind a wild fourth-quarter comeback. Momentum is now swinging in Oklahoma City’s direction, but Minnesota returns home with a desperate need to protect their court.
Thunder’s Core Heating Up
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an All-NBA level, averaging 29.7 points and 6.8 assists in the postseason. Rookie phenom Chet Holmgren continues to improve on both ends, while Jalen Williams remains the X-factor on offense. The Thunder’s fast pace and perimeter shooting are proving challenging for the Timberwolves’ stout interior defense.
Defense, Rebounding, and Anthony Edwards
The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s top-ranked defense, anchored by Defensive Player of the Year finalist Rudy Gobert and versatile stopper Jaden McDaniels. But it’s Anthony Edwards who has stolen the show, averaging 27.9 points per game in the playoffs and emerging as an electric two-way force. However, he’s dealing with a sore ankle, which could be a key storyline to monitor heading into Game 3.
Injury Report
Thunder:
Out: None
Questionable: Luguentz Dort (hamstring)
Timberwolves:
Questionable: Anthony Edwards (ankle), Mike Conley (knee management)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS):
Thunder: 42-34-6 ATS this season
Timberwolves: 40-36-6 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends:
Total has gone under in 7 of the Timberwolves’ last 10 playoff games
Total has gone over in 6 of the Thunder’s last 8 games
Player Prop to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Points Total: 28.5
Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared this mark in 5 straight playoff games. With the Timberwolves focused on stopping OKC’s shooters, SGA should have room to operate. Take the over.
Anthony Edwards – 3-Pointers Made: 2.5
If healthy, Edwards should put up volume threes. Monitor his status but if active, the over is worth a look.
Prediction & Best Bets
The series-tied game makes this tough to call, but the Thunder’s momentum and quick-paced offense could catch the Timberwolves off guard again—especially if Mike Conley or Edwards are limited. Minnesota’s defense is elite, but without their full offensive strength, they could struggle to keep up with SGA and Co.
Spread: Thunder +3.5 → The value lies with OKC to either win outright or keep it close.
Total: Under 218.5 → Minnesota’s defense excels at home.
Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 109, Timberwolves 104