Game Details:
Matchup: Red Sox vs. Yankees
Date & Time: Tuesday, September 30, 2025 | 7:05 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Betting Line: Yankees -135 | Over/Under: 8.5
Key Storylines
AL East Showdown: There’s nothing quite like a late-season clash between the Yankees and Red Sox. With only a few games left in the regular season, both teams are clawing for Wild Card positioning, making tonight’s matchup crucial.
Season Series on the Line: The teams have split their first 12 meetings of the season, 6-6, so this one could swing the bragging rights to either side. Momentum will also play a huge part heading into the postseason push.
Yankees Surging at Home: The Yankees have won 8 of their last 10 at Yankee Stadium, anchored by strong bullpen performances and timely hitting. Look for the Bronx Bombers to keep that edge alive tonight.
Injury Report
Red Sox:
Out: Triston Casas (back), Chris Martin (shoulder)
Questionable: Rafael Devers (hamstring), Kenley Jansen (fatigue)
Yankees:
Out: Anthony Rizzo (concussion), Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow)
Questionable: Gleyber Torres (groin)
Pitching Matchup
Red Sox: Tanner Houck (RHP, 10-9, 3.88 ERA)
Houck has been solid in the second half but has struggled against the Yankees, giving up 8 earned runs over his last two starts vs. New York.
Yankees: Carlos Rodón (LHP, 12-6, 3.41 ERA)
The lefty has bounced back in 2025 and has dominated the Red Sox, holding them to a .188 average this season with 18 Ks in 13 innings pitched.
Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs. teams with winning records.
- The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams at Yankee Stadium.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in Houck’s last 5 starts vs. AL East opponents.
Player Prop to Watch
Aaron Judge (Yankees) – Home Run Prop: Judge has hit 4 homers in his last 6 games. With Houck’s tendency to leave pitches up inside Yankee Stadium, the over on Judge’s HR prop could offer good value.
Prediction & Best Bets
Moneyline: Yankees -135 → With Rodón’s edge on the mound and their home form, the Yankees are the safer pick tonight.
Total: Over 8.5 → Both offenses have the firepower and recent trends point to a high-scoring affair.
Player Prop: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home Runs → Riding the hot bat in a hitter’s park vs. struggling arm.
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 6, Red Sox 4